CND base coat under LED lamp

[NancySyd]

The Kline report goes up through 2014 and states says that CND grew (not shrunk) and Gelish grew at about the same % (gel polish category). Those are the only 2 in the report with double digit marketshare. So I would suspect the marketshare numbers that you are referencing is a result of a substantially larger amount of brands in the market + more laggard adopters.

Put in an illustrative way, if you are one of 2 people selling to 5 people out of 10 - you each have 50% marketshare. Fast forward a few years and there are 50 people selling to 100, 35% is still 7 times the amount of people you were selling to before.

Hope that makes sense.

But you are making my point. I understand the math(s). I will have to dig out my reports and look, but I believe that OPI also has double digit market share, and other companies are beginning to make inroads. But again, my numbers are for the US primarily.

I don't think we disagree on the math, but I do think we disagree on what CND's response should be. I did not say CND's revenues were shrinking. As I said, although CND's revenues are increasing and not shrinking, its share of the market is shrinking. Using the example you gave, that means that CND is obviously still making money, but its influence over the market has diminished greatly. Increases in sales that come from the expansion of the general market are less costly/more profitable than sales growth from increased market share. But it also means that if the market shrinks (or does not continue to expand), its revenue will begin to fall. Losses in market share can be an important sign of problems that require strategic adjustments.

And that's my point - that I believe that CNS Shellac's loss of market share (even in the face of increasing revenues) should cause CND to reassess their strategy. In the beginning, CND did not have much competition in the gel polish market. Now it is getting stiff competition not only from cheap knockoff companies with broad market reach, but also from industry giants with massive R&D like OPI and Sally Hansen (Coty), Essie (L'Oreal), China Glaze, Progel/TruGel/IBD (AII) as well as consumer brands.

Sorry, I think the professor in me just came out!

 

[The Geek]

Hey Nancy (fun discussion BTW),

I don't think you're comparing fairly here. OPI is by far the top dog in the nailcare market as a whole (mainly because of polish), but I thought we were talking about gel polish? In gel polish, they are globally #3 but their share is almost half of what Gelish is and they are in single digits.

Marketshare as a percentage isn't an overly meaningful metric when the size of the pie (customers) and the number of pieces (brands) are both growing (at different rates). For example, if there are 100 customers and 2 brands equally split - it only takes 1 more person to come to the party to take market share. 2 customers would give the new player 2% marketshare and reduce the other two to 49%%. I am not saying marketshare isn't indicative of success in the market, I am just saying that the new guy coming to the party cannot even exist if they don't service someone. In our case, we have something like 50+ new guys who have come to the party over the last 3 years. Those pie pieces come from everyone elses share.

The point I was trying to make is that you say everyone is leaving the brand and the house is caving in, but in reality CND are still growing at the same rate their closest competitor is (which makes sense) and that growth is at more than many of the other guys had combined!

That isn't to say everything is "peachy keen" and CND is so perfectly awesome. I just wanted to give some actual data to counter your perception which I disagreed with.

Dialing back to the original hijack, Sparkle has very valid point that the lamp is a barrier. In Australia, the lamp does seem prohibitively expensive. That has led to a lost CND customer and that certainly isn't good for the brand. And I agree with you in spirit that it would be perfect if there was a standard for lamps that products could formulate to, I disagree that CND should change their formula to be compatible with other lamps if that meant it would sacrifice the quality.

 

[NancySyd]

Hey Nancy (fun discussion BTW),

I don't think you're comparing fairly here. OPI is by far the top dog in the nailcare market as a whole (mainly because of polish), but I thought we were talking about gel polish? In gel polish, they are globally #3 but their share is almost half of what Gelish is and they are in single digits. Yes, but they've only been in the market a few years and they have massive marketing reach and a sizable consumer and professional base

Marketshare as a percentage isn't an overly meaningful metric when the size of the pie (customers) and the number of pieces (brands) are both growing (at different rates). For example, if there are 100 customers and 2 brands equally split - it only takes 1 more person to come to the party to take market share. 2 customers would give the new player 2% marketshare and reduce the other two to 49%%. I am not saying marketshare isn't indicative of success in the market, I am just saying that the new guy coming to the party cannot even exist if they don't service someone. In our case, we have something like 50+ new guys who have come to the party over the last 3 years. Those pie pieces come from everyone elses share.

The point I was trying to make is that you say everyone is leaving the brand and the house is caving in, but in reality CND are still growing at the same rate their closest competitor is (which makes sense) and that growth is at more than many of the other guys had combined!

That isn't to say everything is "peachy keen" and CND is so perfectly awesome. I just wanted to give some actual data to counter your perception which I disagreed with.

Dialing back to the original hijack, Sparkle has very valid point that the lamp is a barrier. In Australia, the lamp does seem prohibitively expensive. That has led to a lost CND customer and that certainly isn't good for the brand. And I agree with you in spirit that it would be perfect if there was a standard for lamps that products could formulate to, I disagree that CND should change their formula to be compatible with other lamps if that meant it would sacrifice the quality.

Yes, I enjoy the conversation as well. Try talking to my university colleagues about market share of gel polish and watch the looks you get!

I think the revenue is the misleading figure. While total revenues are up, market share is an important is a critical indicator of future success. For example, if there are 100 buyers and CND has a 50% share. If 100 more buyers come into the market but only 25 choose CND (because of other choices available), CND has a 37.5% market share but still sees a net increase in revenues, which can be misleading. But what this really means is that 75% of new buyers are not choosing CND, and that is a problem. What I'm saying is that while CND may hold on to its base with this new lamp and that is critical to do, it will not bring new buyers to CND, either new nail techs or techs seeking to add a system. And since any product's old buyers well, die off, it is important to be attracting new buyers. My point is that CND is attracting fewer buyers among new buyers. Decreased market share is especially critical for a company like CND which seeks to be a market leader in terms of innovation. I'm not saying that CND is doomed (and I would hate to see that), but it is no longer the decider in the market anymore, its influence is waning, and this new lamp doesn't change that.

 

[The Geek]

But that can be said of any company competing in the space. If (from a market share percentage) both the #1 and #2 slot are tracking at the same pace, and #1 is "doing it wrong" then by rights #2 will be doing it wrong too.

The gel-colour market is maturing yet there are a plethora more brands fighting their way into the space. That makes it more "crowded" for everyone.

But that is a good thing! It provides competition and that fuels innovation and makes companies fight harder for your custom

 

[BarbaraC]

Hi all
I had a brain snap yesterday, and applied CND base coat and cured under the Gelish 5 45 lamp, instead of the Gelish base coat.
Went ahead to do the rest of the service with Gelish colour and top coat.
It was a friend that i do on a regular basis at no charge, so i told her that i used the wrong base, and I'd redo it if it didn't last.
She wasn't worried, our nail time is also our coffee catch up so it's an excuse to get together again if it's a redo!
My question is, has anyone actually tried using CND with LED?
I don't actually have any colours left of CND, sold them because i couldn't cope with 'lamp-gate'.

Sent from my SM-N915G using SalonGeek mobile app

This may help... Pure Spa Direct Blog: Will my Gelish LED Light Cure CND Shellac Polish?

 

[NancySyd]

This may help... Pure Spa Direct Blog: Will my Gelish LED Light Cure CND Shellac Polish?

Actually, iirc that "test" was proven incorrect and Pure Spa Direct was supposed to remove it. I think there's a thread about this somewhere on SG.

 

[The Geek]

This may help... Pure Spa Direct Blog: Will my Gelish LED Light Cure CND Shellac Polish?

While that article may seem to make sense, it demonstrates a common fallacy with understanding the technology we work with. People think it must work because it looks like it does.

A light cured coating will appear totally cured when it is about 50% of the way baked. Would you trust a cook that served sausage or chicken that was only half baked just because it looked right from the outside?

There are a lot of great articles out there. I highly recommend reading some of Doug Schoons articles on the subject. e.g.: Schoon Scientific - Doug Schoon, scientist and nail industry expert provides educational articles I also cannot recommend his "Face to Face" site enough. IMO one of the best investments a professional can make: "Face-to-Face with Doug Schoon" | Expert information for the nail and beauty industry.

We really need to work as an industry to educate one another on the importance of this subject. Can you imagine what the industry will look like if large groups of consumers begin to show signs of allergic reactions from years of having their product undercured?It would be devastating to every nail pro around the globe.

Imagine what CNN would do with a story like that!