'The Credit Crunch' A self-fulfilling prophecy?

[redsadie]

Hi guys

Just interested to hear your views on this. Have you felt the pinch, however big or small? Is your business suffering because of it?

Is it really a 'credit crunch'? I know prices are increasing all the time but they've always increased, perhaps not quite so quickly, but they don't ever go down do they! Is all the negative press coverage making people believe that we really could go into a recession?

The more the press cover negative stories, the more people believe them, the more we act in a much more cautious way, thus creating an actual credit crunch?

Have we been led to believe it's worse than it actually is? I'm not denying that times are a little tight and I'm not wealthy by any stretch of the imagination , but I don't seem to be any worse off than I have been in the past. Sure I have to fill up my petrol tank with £20 instead of £15 to go the same distance, but if the government brought down the extortionate amont of tax they put on each litre then that would solve that problem with that?

If we think we are in a credit crunch, we will treat our situation that way. If we treat the economy as if we are in said credit crunch, we will act, and even become scared to spend money, as if we are about to have a Black Tuesday (or you pick the day of the week ). We have thus had the prophecy about it fulfilled! Probably just repeated what I said before :o

Please let me know your thoughts and also tell me if I'm being a bit stupid and naive. If a lot of you tell me I'm stupid and naive, I may just believe it myself :wink2:

It is very late, so may well be talking a load of tripe, but it's been bothering me so thought I'd share my thoughts

Night. xx

 

[PLAOH]

Great thread.

I do agree that the media doesn't always help in these situations. They love to promote doom and gloom:lol: and this can make the consumer uneasy, however (and I can only speak for myself), yes I am feeling the pinch and I'm sure many others are the same.

It feels like my fuel bill has nearly doubled (must fill up at your station:lol::lol and it's the main basic foods that are getting more expensive. With three ever hungry children, bread use to be a cheap filler. Not anymore. It is cheaper to buy biscuits to fill them up.

I can cut out the luxuries, but I can't run my car any cheaper and all the utility bills have soared.

Business wise, I haven't lost any clients as yet, however, the phone just isn't ringing at the moment (weather may not help), but I listen to my clients who work and they are all saying the same, their employer or business is slowing up.

I'd love to shop more so the 'credit crunch isn't a self-fulfilling prophecy, but in reality I'm skint (though happy) like the rest of the country.

 

[jax]

The good thing about this industry is that regardless of credit crunch or otherwise, we are predicted to have increased business over the next 10 years.

Some very clever Sweedish boffins (Ridderstrale and Nordstom from Funky Business) reackon that the beauty industry is sure to be one of the biggest growing sectors across the globe in the next 10 years. EVEolution which predicts that women are becoming a serious driving force in our economy both in earning big and spending big and who thankfully are happy to splash their cash around - especially on themselves!!:lol: should hopefully offer us a little protection from the apparent decline we are expecting.

Woman love to look and feel gorgeous, we have been doing it since the begining of time and I personally dont think its going to stop anytime soon - regardless of how much it costs!!.x

 

[redsadie]

The good thing about this industry is that regardless of credit crunch or otherwise, we are predicted to have increased business over the next 10 years.

Some very clever Sweedish boffins (Ridderstrale and Nordstom from Funky Business) reackon that the beauty industry is sure to be one of the biggest growing sectors across the globe in the next 10 years. EVEolution which predicts that women are becoming a serious driving force in our economy both in earning big and spending big and who thankfully are happy to splash their cash around - especially on themselves!!:lol: should hopefully offer us a little protection from the apparent decline we are expecting.

Woman love to look and feel gorgeous, we have been doing it since the begining of time and I personally dont think its going to stop anytime soon - regardless of how much it costs!!.x

Thanks for the replies so far No-one has said I'm talking tripe yet :green:

PLAOH you're right about the doom and gloom merchants in the news and the rising cost of basic foods, but I think the food is more to do with the weather than the government (although I'd like to blame that on them too ), the thing is, gloom sells newspapers (apart from s*x!) and if we really think about it, although we like to hear about sucess stories, we the readers don't help because we then talk more about the bad stories we've read than the positive ones! Then we think no-one is being a success so it must be true that we're nearing a recession, and so it goes on!

I think you're right Jax, I thought that about the beauty industry myself (I didn't know there had been a study done though ) Even thought I'm not qualified (yet) I believe that there are women (and men) out there who don't see grooming as a luxury, especially things like hair removal, and are willing and able to pay. For every person feeling the pinch, there is at least another who isn't. It's just up to us to find those people

Is there anyone who has seen an increase on last years takings? If so, are you doing anything different? Have you introduces new services? Are you marketing and advertising in a different way? I think we'd all love to hear some good news!

Anyone else? What about you guys from overseas?

Sarah. xx

 

[Gilly T]

I'm definitely feeling it with my fuel bills and running the car. I just cannot believe how high my gas bill has become.

I think there may be an element of self fulfilling prophecy in it because people will act on what they see, hear, feel and this must have an effect on how things progress.

I can't believe that people didn't see the problem with house prices coming in the first place. I bought a house about four years ago and sold it last year for over DOUBLE what I bought it for.. unbelievable!! I don't think for a minute that it was worth what it sold for but I wasn't likely to turn it down.. sounds more like greedy estate agents to me. I feel sorry for anyone who has a 95/100% mortgage on a property they have bought within the last 18 months or so.

As far as business is concerned, I'm not qualified yet so cannot comments but can only say that if something doesn't change then I don't think I will ever get a business going.....

 

[Marlise]

I used to be able to fill my car up with £28. I'm now paying £49 !!!

That might not seem much, but to me that is £21 extra that I used to have. Utility bills are getting higher each day as well.

Not sure if we are going into a recession, but I'm sure feeling the extra money I need to spend.

I'm not spending money "willy nilly" anymore and have cut back on a lot of things because my money simply isn't going that far anymore.

I had a wax as a treat the other day (even thought at the time it didn't feel like a treat ) but I just don't have the money for all the luxuries I used to have.

I've also had to curb my "social" ependiture, so I assume a lot of people are in the same boat as me...:cry:


M.

 

[helsbels]

Great thread.....here I go!

I agree, without a doubt there is an element of self-fulfilling prophecy, I sold my house at beginning of the year and everyone told me to wait before I bought a new house as prices were set to tumble - I didn't, but I did get a good deal on the house I bought. I have been watching the market closely and prices still remain the same and in actual fact in some areas rose by £3,000 last month. Rent on the other hand is astronomical, so not sure waiting would have made good financial sense either. The negative media coverage means people are watching not buying, which could result in house prices dropping, and then the media can go 'there you are -we told you so'!

However, petrol has risen almost 20% in the past 7 months, it costs £50 to fill my car up and I do over 250 miles per week, I currently work for a local authority who have increased our council tax by 5.3% but are refusing us employees a 2% pay increase. My utility bills have risen and the price of food has definitely gone up but then the lorries carrying it all have seen their fuel charges soar along with congestion charges and now the threat of increased road tax. It's a vicious circle!

 

[Gilly T]

Well get on the government website and sign the petition to reduce the duty on fuel!!!! Every little helps... I feel like I'm harping on about it a bit but I just think it's all getting out of hand. Something needs doing about it and the bigger the voice, the more impact it should have.

 

[redsadie]

As far as business is concerned, I'm not qualified yet so cannot comments but can only say that if something doesn't change then I don't think I will ever get a business going.....

I don't agree Gilly when you have time read Starting up in a tough climate | Business Link I think there is never a bad time to get a great business started. Just because as there is less (not just finance) available to you, it just means you have to be more creative in your ways to ensure you establish yourself to the clientel that can afford it. Let the others self prophesise about it and fail while you take their customers! (a bit harsh maybe, but it's tough times!) If you 'wait and see' then when the time comes that the economy is good again, everyone will have the same idea!

I suppose it's a bit like deciding to have children. There's never a good time whether you're 'settled' or not! I was 19, practically homeless and my mum had just died when I had my first child. Not a good time you'd think, but he kept me together and we made it through!

If you have to start small, start small, do the one thing that you know you can do really well and focus on it. Do it really well. Target the people you know will be able to afford it but also put up some discounted packages perhaps for slow times in your day, say for example early pm from 2 - 4 £5 off quoted price or get a full leg wax and have your eyebrows done free, it's not going to cost you any more than your time for this as the wax is already heated, and how much longer does it take to wax eyebrows?! Everyone loves a percieved bargain, rich or not so rich! Also there must be other complementary businesses in your local area that you can do deals with, carry each others cards around and if one of their clients books with you and has their treatment they get 10% off and vice versa, or something like that anyway!

So I think this is still a great time for starting up if you can start up now, do it! If you start up now, you are more likely to succeed as you started when there was a tough time. You will have been determined and this will see you through. Be innovative and true to you and when the sun shines again on theeconomy, you will prosper better as you will have know lean times to begin with :green:. Ok stop waffling now, I think you get my point

Well get on the government website and sign the petition to reduce the duty on fuel!!!! Every little helps... I feel like I'm harping on about it a bit but I just think it's all getting out of hand. Something needs doing about it and the bigger the voice, the more impact it should have.

The petition is closed hun :cry: but you can see the Prime Ministers response here.

So, if petrol came down, the price of food MAY go down (as I said I think it's due to cr*p weather too not just the Government :cry. If both happen then do you think people may see light at the end of the tunnel? Do you think the media will actually put something positive in the news? If so, they may well be able to turn this 'credit crunch' around?

Any more for any more? :green:

Sarah. xx

 

[Gilly T]

Wow.... I never really looked at it that way to be honest. Some excellent suggestions there too. I will just have to hope that the situation is stil the same when I finally qualify and can get going. Thanks.


I think if people see something they can feel a little relieved about then yes, I think they may behave differently and things may lighten up a little. I think we need it to don't you?

There is another petition that someone on facebook has started and I'm sure he said it's not closing until the middle of June. I will have a peek and get back to you. xx

 

[Gilly T]

I should have checked before I posted. Stupid (slaps forehead!)

The deadline for this one is the 17th June.... Petition to: Reduce Fuel duty to bring fuel prices back to an acceptable level.

xx

 

[redsadie]

Thanks for that link Gilly , I'm all signed up and have forwarded it on to most of the people in my email address book too :green:

So, does anyone else think 'Le Crunch' is as bad as the papers make out?

xx

 

[pazzy]

Sometimes I just don't read the papers cos it makes me hate the world - and wonder what the point of life is (LOL)


They take pleasure in telling us they tax us - then give it immigrants who are zapping everything. Millions getting into the country. They even give us a run down of the items we buy and the costs. Depressing reading or what.

But on a positive note - there seems to be no change in my business except the phone is not ringing that much.

We'll be ok man.

How many things have beed sensationalised and then it never really happened. Millenium bug ring any bells?

Peoples spending were getting out of hand. It won't do anyone any harm to cut back a little - then the luxuries we enjoy will seem far more well deserved.

 

[sj1973]

Well i must say i am worse off. I have a huuby who tattoos for a living, 3 kids and me in 3 bed house. Our electric and gas has gone up by £40 per month and they are talking about putting it up again.

Shopping bill is more than £30 per week and i get the same. As for petrol , last week i got to the petrol station and it was 112.9. 2 days later it was 114.9. Today it is 117.9. I use to fill my car up with £20 when it was on half, NOWAY will it do that now.

As for starting up your own business, i would think VERY carfully about it because , if you borrow the money , you have to pay it back, if you don't pay it back, they will take everything of yours to pay it back.

When we set up our tattoo business , we paid for it so no loan, if we were thinking about it now, i don't know if we would it it because if people can't afford a tattoo, they wont pay me, how will i get my money for morgage,bills,etc?.

Give us people a chance is what i say and stop taxing us soooooo much.

 

[Marlise]

When I filled up at my local Sainsbury's on Saturday, it was £1.22 per liter for diesel.

Went this afternoon for some shopping and it's £1.24 now !!!

 

[Blue Rose]

When I filled up at my local Sainsbury's on Saturday, it was £1.22 per liter for diesel.

Went this afternoon for some shopping and it's £1.24 now !!!

Went to get diesel today. Sainsbury's (£1.24) was closed so had to go to one nearer home £1.30 !!!

 

[Ruth Mills]

Went to get diesel today. Sainsbury's (£1.24) was closed so had to go to one nearer home £1.30 !!!

Aye, the price of diesel is insane! Even with an Asda credit card that gives you 2p off per litre when you fill up there (yes I have gone to that extent to save cash). So now I am driving like an OAP everywhere, not going much above 50 mph on the motorway! Have even decided to boycott the multi storey car park next to the office that charges £3 per day, and park a 20 minute walk away where it's free...

 

[Blue Rose]

, not going much above 50 mph on the motorway! ...

I'm also watching my speed which for me has been veeerrrry difficult. (says she with points for speeding!)

I'm also driving without the a/c on which has made a surprising difference on MPG


ps this article Rebecca Kepple Articles - Avoiding A Global Recession In YOUR Business makes for interesting reading.

Totally agree that a lot of us talk ourselves into a negative situation

 

[Ruth Mills]

I'm also watching my speed which for me has been veeerrrry difficult. (says she with points for speeding!)

I'm also driving without the a/c on which has made a surprising difference on MPG

Aye, I've been doing without the aircon too... thankfully it's not been too stupidly hot of late...

 

[1999judy]

£52 it cost me to fill my car this week!!
I drive in "sports mode" though....I have no idea what it means but it uses more petrol.
It's my brothers fault he told me to do it!
Serves me right for buying a mid life crisis sports car I suppose:lol:
I may be skint but I still look cool eh?